Don Monahan may have followed the rules, but that does not mean the promotion was politically wise.  

There are two questions at the centre of the controversy surrounding Don Monahan’s campaign for the leadership of the Progressive Conservative Party of New Brunswick.

Was it allowed?

And should it have been done?

The first is a legal question.

The second could affect whether the PCs are trusted to govern New Brunswick again.

Festival patrons at a campground connected to Monahan’s businesses were reportedly offered $50 in tokens and a $35 drive in pass if they joined the PC party and registered to vote in its leadership election.

That is $85 in benefits for completing a process that costs a new member $50.

Monahan’s rival, Daniel Allain, argued that the promotion effectively subsidized memberships and could amount to an improper corporate contribution.

Monahan rejected that allegation. He said his campaign, not businesses paid for the incentives and that the arrangement had been cleared with the party and Elections New Brunswick.

Elections New Brunswick found no apparent violation of the Political Process Financing Act requiring further action.

That matters.

There has been no official finding that Monahan broke the law or violated the party’s rules.

But legal compliance does not automatically create political legitimacy.

To an ordinary voter, the transaction looks simple:

Pay $50.

Receive $85 in benefits.

Register for an election in which the promotion encourages you to support Don Monahan.

The ballot is secret, and no one accepting the promotion could be forced to vote for him. That may make the arrangement technically permissible.

It does not make it politically wise.

What happens if Monahan wins?

If Monahan loses, the controversy will probably become a footnote.

If he wins, it could follow him and the party for years.

The first problem would be the legitimacy of his mandate.

How many people registered through the promotion? How much did the campaign pay for the tokens and passes? How much of that money went to businesses connected to Monahan?

Most importantly, could those registrations exceed his margin of victory?

Unless the party releases those numbers, no one will know.

A close result would give Monahan’s opponents an obvious argument: would he have won without the incentives?

That question could divide the PCs at precisely the moment their new leader is supposed to unite them.

The controversy also creates the appearance of self-dealing. Monahan says his campaign reimbursed the businesses providing the incentives. That may have been a properly recorded expense, but it still means political campaign money was going to businesses connected to the candidate.

There may be a lawful explanation.

Political opponents do not need to prove illegality, however. They only need to create doubt.

A party that cannot afford another trust problem

The PCs were reduced to 16 seats in the 2024 provincial election, while Susan Holt’s Liberals won 31.

A recent Abacus Data poll placed the Liberals at 45 per cent and the PCs at 31 per cent among decided voters.

The next PC leader must rebuild the party’s credibility with moderates, former supporters and voters who may agree with conservative policies but remain uncertain about the party’s judgment.

“Tokens for votes” is not the message with which to begin that rebuilding.

Political opponents would not need a complicated attack advertisement. The phrase does the work by itself.

The factual and legal explanation may be considerably more complicated, but allegations are often remembered long after the explanation is forgotten.

If the PCs are willing to offer benefits to people participating in the selection of their leader, opponents will ask why the public should trust them to protect the integrity of a provincial election or manage taxpayers’ money.

That may be an unfair comparison.

It is also entirely predictable.

The party must protect the result

Before the leadership vote, the party should disclose how many people accepted Monahan’s promotion, how much his campaign paid and whether those payments went to businesses connected to him.

It should also prohibit future gifts, rebates or incentives tied to purchasing a membership, registering to vote or endorsing a leadership candidate.

If Monahan wins, simply saying the arrangement was approved will not be enough.

Election agencies determine what is legally permitted.

Political parties determine what standards they are prepared to defend.

Voters determine whether those standards are good enough.

Monahan may still win the leadership fairly and prove to be an effective leader.

But if the party leaves this controversy unanswered, every close result and future ethics question could return to the same damaging phrase:

Tokens for votes.

The PCs could win their leadership race while losing the larger argument over whether New Brunswickers can trust them to govern.