NATIONAL STORIES

Why Monday’s Federal By-Elections Could Signal How Voters View Ongoing Trade Tensions

Voters cast ballots in three federal by-elections in Quebec, Ontario, and BC as ongoing U.S. trade tensions weigh on key competitive ridings.

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Advance Voter Turnout Reaches 39,500 Across Three Ridings

Elections Canada has recorded 39,500 early ballots in three federal by-elections scheduled for Monday, where voters will decide contested seats in Quebec, Ontario, and British Columbia. The open seats were previously held by two Liberals and one Conservative who departed for distinct roles in public service and politics.

In North Vancouver-Capilano, 16,700 early votes were submitted. Beaches-East York recorded 11,800 advance ballots, while 11,000 electors voted early in Chicoutimi-Le Fjord. The outcome arrives while the Liberal party maintains a narrow majority inside the House of Commons.

U.S. Trade Conflicts Influence Quebec Race

The ongoing trade disputes with the United States may play a key role in the Quebec riding of Chicoutimi-Le Fjord. Nik Nanos, chief data scientist at Nanos Research, noted that the breakdown of trade talks could be particularly relevant because Liberal candidate Daniel Gobeil is a dairy farmer and former president of the Dairy Farmers of Quebec.

“The trade war may have an impact on the Quebec by-election because the Liberal candidate is a dairy farmer,” said Mr. Nanos in a statement, adding that it will be notable to see if the trade conflict provides an advantage in the competitive riding.

Daniel Béland, director of the McGill Institute for the Study of Canada and James McGill Professor, observed that Prime Minister Mark Carney’s standing in Quebec regarding the trade war appears to bolster support for Mr. Gobeil. Mr. Béland stated, “It is the one in which a partisan shift is most likely as the Conservatives seem poised to lose a seat at the expense of the Liberals, or, perhaps the Bloc.”

The Chicoutimi-Le Fjord seat became vacant when Conservative MP Richard Martel was named to the Senate. Mr. Martel originally entered Parliament through a 2018 by-election and secured the riding in 2025 with 34 per cent of the vote, narrowly ahead of the Bloc candidate at 31.19 per cent and the Liberal candidate at 31.12 per cent. Conservative candidate Régis Gaudreault, a lawyer and Cégep de Chicoutimi teacher, and Bloc candidate Caroline Dubé are also contesting the seat.

Contests in Toronto and North Vancouver

In Toronto’s Beaches-East York riding, former MP Nathaniel Erskine-Smith stepped down in July following an unsuccessful bid for the Ontario Liberal leadership. Mr. Erskine-Smith, who captured 67.75 per cent of the ballots in 2025, has since declared his intention to seek a seat on Toronto City Council. His former assistant and office manager, Tanveer Shahnawaz, is running for the Liberals against Conservative restaurant operator Jim Syrbos and NDP candidate Shannon Devine.

In British Columbia, North Vancouver-Capilano was left open after longtime MP Jonathan Wilkinson accepted an appointment as ambassador to the European Union. Former ministerial aide Braeden Caley is standing as the Liberal nominee. He faces Conservative lawyer Stephen Curran, NDP candidate Stephen Tweedale, and Green Party candidate Shelley Luce.

NATIONAL STORIES

Why Alberta’s Government Is Ruling Out Future Separation Votes

Premier Danielle Smith says Alberta won’t hold another separation referendum after over 75 per cent of voters chose to stay in Canada during a province-wide vote.

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Premier Smith Rules Out Further Separatist Ballots

Following a provincial vote on Oct. 19 where over 75 per cent of voters chose to remain in Canada, Premier Danielle Smith announced on Tuesday, Oct. 20, that no further referendums on separation will occur during her tenure. Smith stated that the result provides her government with a clear mandate to stay a Canadian province while continuing to push for provincial autonomy within the national constitutional framework.

Disputes to Be Settled Within Canadian Legal System

Addressing the public, Smith emphasized that future disagreements with Ottawa will be handled through political and legal avenues rather than secession. She noted that while constitutional battles remain, key federal political parties now show strong support for Alberta’s major economic sectors. Smith also highlighted that the referendum directed her administration to pursue greater provincial authority over immigration, focus on jobs for Canadians, mandate contributions from temporary residents for public services, and require proof of citizenship to vote.

Opposition Raises Concerns Over Costs and Priorities

Alberta NDP leader Naheed Nenshi criticized the premier’s approach prior to her address, arguing that Smith spent nearly $200 million in taxpayer funds on the referendum exercise, including $4 million spent directly to sway voters. Nenshi stated that the public is frustrated with issues such as the cost of living, employment, public education, and healthcare, claiming the premier’s actions catered to separatists rather than addressing core public priorities.

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NATIONAL STORIES

Highland Valley Copper Workers Could Strike Saturday as Union Issues Notice

United Steelworkers Local 7619 has issued a 72-hour strike notice at Teck’s Highland Valley Copper mine near Logan Lake, B.C. Work stoppage could start Saturday.

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Labour Dispute Hits Highland Valley Copper Site

A strike could begin as soon as 8 a.m. on Saturday at the Highland Valley Copper operation near Logan Lake, B.C., following a 72-hour strike notice issued by United Steelworkers Local 7619.

Representing approximately 1,200 workers at the mine, the union announced the step after talks with the site’s operator failed to produce a fair collective agreement.

Staffing and Wage Concerns Prompt Action

Local 7619 stated that it presented proposals aimed at addressing staff shortages, raising wages, and improving pensions. According to the union, these measures are necessary to ensure the mine remains a competitive employer within the expanding B.C. mining sector and to fix ongoing issues attracting and retaining skilled tradespeople.

Mine operator Teck Resources Ltd. confirmed it has developed a contingency plan designed to maintain environmental management and safety standards in the event of a strike. The company expressed its commitment to securing a fair and reasonable collective agreement that preserves the long-term viability of the operation.

Broader Corporate Context

The job action notice arrives while Teck and Anglo American PLC work to finalize a multibillion-dollar merger agreement originally announced last year.

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NATIONAL STORIES

Tragedy at CFB Wainwright frames last-minute calls for unity as Albertans prepare for referendum vote

Pro-unity rally organizers and political leaders urge unity following a fatal fire at CFB Wainwright as Albertans prepare to vote in a historic referendum.

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Tragedy Overshadows Final Day of Referendum Campaigning

On the eve of a historic provincial vote, a deadly blaze at CFB Wainwright hung heavy over political gatherings in Alberta. Four military members died and dozens suffered serious injuries following a violent fire at the expansive military training facility located roughly 200 kilometres southeast of Edmonton.

Gathering at the Alberta legislature on Sunday, pro-unity demonstrators waved Canadian flags attached to hockey sticks and held signs opposing Premier Danielle Smith’s referendum. The rally, organized by the Alberta Federation of Labour, occurred a day after independence supporters gathered at the same site displaying blue Alberta flags.

Leaders Emphasize Unity in Wake of Military Base Fire

Addressing the crowd at the provincial legislature, Forever Canadian leader Thomas Lukaszuk acknowledged the difficulty of holding a rally under such circumstances, while highlighting that the sacrifices of military members afford citizens the privilege to demonstrate. Alberta Federation of Labour leader Gil McGowan directed a moment of silence for those affected and first responders, noting that Canadians stepped up to assist without regard for the ongoing political debate.

Union leaders representing provincial workers and nurses also spoke to the crowd, framing the response to the Wainwright tragedy as a testament to the importance of solidarity across the province and nation. At a news conference addressing the military base fire, Premier Danielle Smith noted Alberta’s long history of supporting the armed forces and confirmed the province is assisting with medical care for the injured personnel.

Voters Head to the Polls After Intensive Campaigning

Voting opens Monday from 9 a.m. to 8 p.m. across Alberta, with electors deciding whether the province should remain in Canada or trigger a second, binding referendum on separation. Early turnout indicates high engagement, with Elections Alberta reporting that over 1.3 million of the approximately 3.1 million eligible voters have already cast advance or mail-in ballots.

The ballot features ten total questions. In addition to the separation item, nine questions posed by Premier Smith seek mandates regarding immigration oversight and constitutional shifts from Ottawa. Federal leaders have also weighed in during the campaign’s final days, with Prime Minister Mark Carney campaigning in Edmonton, Red Deer, and Calgary to advocate for a united Canada, while Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre has similarly delivered speeches supporting Canadian unity.

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